Attack target syria?

Syria threatens to retaliate against a renewed attack "with "all means at its disposal"

After the israeli airstrike on an alleged palestinian training camp, only 15 kilometers from damascus, the syrian government appeared rather calm and appeasing. The attack was seen as an act of provocation. The "the "training camp" had already been closed more than 6 years ago and was then used as a resting place for tourists. A fact that could not have escaped the attention of the otherwise well-informed israeli secret service. "Sharon wants to drive syria and the whole region to war," said syrian president bashar assad. On wednesday, the u.S. House of representatives voted in favor of sanctions against syria. Yesterday, the syrian chief of general staff hassan turkmani called for vigilance against a new attack.At the summit of the islamic conference, assad accused israel of expanding the "war against "war against islam" at the summit of the islamic conference. Syria does not like to be impressed by israel’s military power. Nevertheless, syria did not seek confrontation in the un security council, but, like all other states, voted in favor of the un resolution introduced by the u.S. Government.

At first, however, syria took a cautious approach. It was not until a week after the airstrike that the syrian ministry of foreign affairs reacted. At a press conference in damascus, bushra kanafani, the ministry’s spokeswoman, said, "syria will exercise its legitimate right to respond with all available means if the aggression is repeated."

Normally, one would think that no country in the middle east could have an interest in a war that had completely incalculable catastrophic consequences for the entire region. But you never know with prime minister ariel sharon. It is known that he has a "for warlike conflicts and is considered to be "unyielding" "unyielding". Already in 1982, as minister of defense, he led the rough invasion of lebanon and is considered responsible for the massacres in the palestinian refugee camps of beirut. Now sharon loves to attack syria again after more than 30 years, the last time in 1973 in the arab-israeli war, and this with official approval by the us government. Many arab observers now believe that a second attack could have been imminent at any time.

The question then is, how will and above all how can syria fight back and what does a "response with all available means" mean without provoking an all-out war? "Response with "all available means" without provoking a full-scale war.

The syrian army is large in number, but equipped with obsolete soviet equipment. In the 1980s, syria attempted to develop its own missiles, which could be armed with conventional, chemical or biological warheads. The idea was to create a deterrent counterweight to israel’s military superiority. State came up with an extended version of the scud c missile. This scud d has a range of 700 kilometers, but lower accuracy and a smaller warhead than the scud b and scud c operational versions, which are stored in rough numbers in syrian weapons arsenals. But these "long-range missiles" are weapons that are normally only used in the most extreme emergencies, as the consequences can be devastating. As a means of "balancing" counterattack, they are therefore unsuitable. A mission was immediately war triggered. Instead, syria could vote for a test firing of one of their new scud ds. A tactic worthy of publicity, as it has been used several times in the past by countries such as north korea, pakistan and india to send a warning to their neighbors.

Another option would be the deployment of anti-aircraft missiles in the bekaa valley, which would pose a serious threat to the frequent patrol flights of the israeli air force over lebanon. The syrian sams are also somewhat obsolete, but at least they ensured that fighter jets did not dare to enter syrian airspace during the last israeli attack. The missiles that destroyed the former palestinian camp were fired from lebanese airspace.

"A realistic option," says timur goksel, former advisor to the un peacekeeping force in sudliban. "The israelis would not dare to attack these sam batteries in the bekaa valley. Then it would be only a small step to the war." a somewhat uncertain prediction, considering the rigor of the israeli government’s policies over the past two years.

Green light for hezbollah

Another variant would be what syria has often done when it wanted to show its displeasure with israeli policy. One gives "green light" for operations on the israeli-lebanese border. In april 2002, there were 10 days of fighting after israel reoccupied the west bank.

"The "green light" is given to logistical cooperation with hezbollah, which has already announced its intention to retaliate militarily in the event of a renewed israeli attack. In recent days, the "party of god," which calls itself a "in recent days, the "party of god," which calls itself a "resistance movement against israel," has strengthened its positions and moved elite troops from the bekaa valley to the israeli border. In 2000, hezbollah drove the israeli military out of sud lebanon and remains the greater threat to israel today. It is an enemy that you can not get hold of without a capital city that you could bomb.

Hezbollah has a very well-equipped force, whose approximately 60.000 men, most of whom are trained as elite soldiers and for whom it is a disgrace to return home alive from a mission. They use the most modern means of communication and their intelligence service has informants even in the israeli army and thus usually knows all enemy troop movements. The only thing that is known about the armament is that it is excellent and corresponds to the level of the iranian army. Via "detours", weapons from saddam hussein’s arsenal are said to have ended up with hezbollah, as an ex-soldier from the "imam ali brigade" ares "imam ali brigade", who of course wants to remain unidentified. Syria is also said to be a recipient of such arms shipments from iraq, which of course means water on the mills of the u.S. Government in the struggle against the "terrorist state" syria. The arms shipments are said to have left iraq before the u.S. Invasion.

"But timus goksel, the former un adviser, believes that "heating up the conflict on the border" is too risky and that hezbollah cannot be controlled. "When it comes to national interests, syria does not like to know them in the hands of others."

The last and fourth conceivable scenario would be the organization of resistance actions on the golan heights, where it has been relatively quiet since 1974. Only in may 2001, a bomb exploded in a cafe regularly visited by israelis. Hezbollah is suspected to be behind it, as a response to the israeli bombardment of a syrian army radar station in the bekaa valley a month earlier.

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